Im thrilled you liked the article! It’s definitely intended to be taken with a grain of salt rather than literally.
To your point though, I don’t think that’s really a conclusion we can draw from the data, remember this is specifically for Greek poleis in a very different context. The only thing we CAN say is that these transition probabilities imply a stable government has the properties of the stable distribution in these circumstances.
But against the above, the USA is the longest surviving republic/democracy ever, at least by one definition, so maybe it’s sort of true? I think this conclusion requires a different validity test.
Amazing, although the conclusion of "American-style governance is provably the most stable" would have rang less hollow ~10 years ago.
Im thrilled you liked the article! It’s definitely intended to be taken with a grain of salt rather than literally.
To your point though, I don’t think that’s really a conclusion we can draw from the data, remember this is specifically for Greek poleis in a very different context. The only thing we CAN say is that these transition probabilities imply a stable government has the properties of the stable distribution in these circumstances.
But against the above, the USA is the longest surviving republic/democracy ever, at least by one definition, so maybe it’s sort of true? I think this conclusion requires a different validity test.